Are we in denial? The case for a Crypto Bear Market is getting stronger

To completely disregard the possibility of a bear market is naive. We just witnessed an insane memecoin bull run where coins like Fartcoin, Trump, and Goat hit billion-dollar market caps in days (to name just a few). That was real liquidity, and people actually got rich off it. There was literal euphoria just like we’ve seen at market tops before. There wasn’t enough liquidity to pump utility coins which would explain the lack of performance to prior cycles.

And let’s talk about Bitcoin. Last cycle, everyone was convinced we were going to $100K, but we topped out at $64k, an underwhelming top no one expected. This time we’re all expecting 150k or above not realising how monumental 100k is. Should I mention the law of diminishing returns? Now, if you compare the current price structure to the first top before the second top last cycle, the similarities are hard to ignore. History might not repeat exactly, but it sure does rhyme.

On top of that, ETF flows are slowing down, which means institutional demand isn’t as strong as it was at launch. NFT volume is down. Crypto Twitter engagement feels dead. Retail isn’t as active. All of these point to a shift in sentiment that could lead to lower prices.

Let’s not forget price not reacting to good news.

And sure, I get it, this kind of uncertainty often signals a bottom. But does it really? What if we’re still in the denial phase and won’t realize it until Bitcoin is back below $60K? The market doesn’t always move in ways we expect, especially given the current economic uncertainty.

I’m not saying for certain we are in a bear market but if we were, the signs are there and we should be ready for anything.

What do you guys think? Are these signs valid, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg up?