How do you think about trading outcomes vs price when news hits?

I’ve been thinking more about how markets react to “events” rather than just price levels.

Things like FED decisions, political outcomes, sports, or major macro headlines often move expectations long before the final result is known.

I’m curious how others approach this.

Do you focus more on narratives and probability shifts, or do you wait for price confirmation?

I’ve recently been exploring an event-based market format where you trade probabilities on outcomes instead of guessing price targets, and it’s changed how I frame risk and timing. It feels closer to forecasting than speculation.

Would love to hear how others here think about trading around events and uncertainty.