If the upcoming ETF spot decision is a ‘Sell the news’ event, then why not sell now?
If the upcoming ETF spot decision is a ‘Sell the news’ event, then why not sell now?
As the title says, there are two popular assumptions that I’ve recently come across:
- If the spot ETF will be rejected by the SEC, the price will drop.
- If the spot ETF will be approved by the SEC, then it’s a “sell the news” event, and the price will drop (even if temporarily).
So if the price is going to drop anyways, why don’t we see a massive sell-off today coming from the exact same people who plan to sell their bags once the ETF is approved/rejected?
Because sell the news means, sell after it’s popped.
There should be a price bump if it is approved and so people will sell into that.
I personally think it’ll be a buy the news event (at least long term) so… let’s see.
This is going to be a rare buy rumour buy the news kind of event. Even if there is a small dip, there will be a huge rebound eventually.
Most people don’t believe that it will a sell the news event, because there will be money flowing into the markets. The price reflects that.
Nobody knows – if we knew for sure the price would drop, everyone would have sold already. And as the result, the price wouldn’t drop during the event. So it can’t work that way.
Markets are chaotic, you can’t predict them with such certainty.