Understanding the cause of bull runs and bear runs

Historically speaking, bitcoin has followed a 4 year cycle. But there were always certain events that caused this. Late 2017 bull run was due to increased number of crypto exchanges. Early 2021 bull run due to institutional adoptions. Mid 2022 bear run due to collapses of luna and ftx. Early 2024 bear run due to spot etf approval. Late 2024 bear run due to trump’s election.

Yes, Ibitcoin halving happens every 4 years thus reducing supply but there were always these big events that happened along the way. Pedicting the market solely based on bitcoin halving cycle is very risky and is not recommended